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Projecting the 2009 Cubs: Geovany Soto


2009 PROJECTIONS

Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Ted Lilly | Sean Marshall | Kevin Gregg | Aaron Heilman | Chad Gaudin | Carlos Marmol | Angel Guzman | Neal Cotts | Luis Vizcaino | Kevin Hart | Jeff Samardzija | Geovany Soto


GEOVANY SOTO STATS

Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus


Soto won the rookie of the year award in 2008 and looks to build on that tremendous season with another one. He was arguably the best catcher in all of baseball and while I always worry about a player entering his second full season, Soto's projections are very, very good. There's no reason to believe he won't not only do what he did last year, but actually improve a bit as well.

Several of us came up with some playing time estimates for the Cubs position players and here are the average plate appearances for the 13 players we're going to do:

Soto 569
Bako 157
Lee 644
Fontenot 582
Ramirez 653
Theriot 604
Soriano 651
Fukudome 469
Bradley 479
Miles 314
Johnson 412
Gathright 163
Hoffpauir 204

That's 5900 plate appearances leaving about 350 or so for the pitchers and pinch hitters, or replacement level producers. I've also added the CBS Sportsline projections that can be found in a nice little spreadsheet here.

SOTO PA HR BB K AVG OBP SLG
CAIRO 440 16 42 54 0.289 0.359 0.492
MARCELS 488 18 50 98 0.291 0.366 0.495
ZIPS 550 25 56 113 0.294 0.367 0.521
JAMES 565 23 62 118 0.293 0.37 0.499
CHONE 475 17 54 101 0.279 0.363 0.474
PECOTA 551 25 61 116 0.288 0.37 0.519
CBS 500 28 60 120 0.29 0.366 0.512
AVERAGE 514 22 55 104 0.289 0.366 0.503


That's exceptional for a catcher.

I'm using the WAR chart from Beyond the Box Score to complete the roster rather than the one provided by Colin Wyers. It includes baserunning, which I'm going to leave at 0 for all players even though that's not realistic. We know Theriot is a below average baserunner, but the sample each year is rather small so I'm leaving everyone at average. Besides, the best baserunners aren't going to add much more than 5 runs and the majority of them will be between -1 and 1. Also, I'm going to be posting a 3-year average UZR chart later today for the Cubs position players and will use that as their defensive value. Catchers aren't included in UZR and there really isn't any decent statistic that measures a catcher's defense so I'm going to guess for the catchers. I'm using 0.5, or rather 5 runs for Soto because it seems all the pitchers like throwing to him. If you'd prefer average, take away 0.5 WAR and you're good to go.

Although I'm listing Soto as above average, I'm not at all sure that he is. It won't make much difference so it's not a big deal.

Per 700 PAs
Hitter Pos PA OBP SLG Hit BR Pos Fld Rep WAR FA $ WAR
Soto CA 569 .366 .503 2.81 0.00 1.25 0.50 2.00 6.56 $26.2 5.3


Geovany Soto is good at baseball!

+/- $WAR: $76.21 million

Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile)

Replacement level team: 48.6 wins
Kevin Gregg: 1.08 WAR
Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR
Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR
Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR
Ted Lilly: 2.92 WAR
Sean Marshall: 1.84 WAR
Aaron Heilman: 0.61 WAR
Chad Gaudin: 0.52 WAR
Carlos Marmol: 1.41 WAR
Angel Guzman: 0.11 WAR
Neal Cotts: 0.31 WAR
Luis Vizcaino: 0.42 WAR
Kevin Hart: -0.06 WAR
Jeff Samardzija: -0.13 WAR
Geovany Soto: 5.3 WAR
TOTAL: 75.5 wins



Tags: Projections

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COMMENTS

1. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:48 AM

Santana is a great pitcher and Maine is pretty good too.  Perez is about average and Pelfrey and Niese are below average.  I’m thinking the reason they have the fewest runs allowed is because BP is assuming that Citi Field will be as much of a pitcher’s paradise as Shea was.

Perez is average with the ability to be above average. Pelfrey was above average last year and improving. Niese is below average, but he was a 21-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time.

I wouldn’t take this rotation over CHC’s, but I’d take it over any other in the NL.

2. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:49 AM

Replacement level team: 48.6 wins

Is that in the fucking Dungeons & Dragons league? (dying laughing) Such poetry.

3. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:52 AM

I’d take the Dbacks rotation before the Mets and probably the Dodgers as well.  I agree that it’s a good rotation, but the only way that team leads the league in runs allowed is if Citi Field is an extreme pitcher’s park and even then I don’t think it happens. 

I’m just not as high on Maine or Pelfrey or Niese as some people are.  I think they’re good mid to back of the rotation pitchers, but Santana is the one that makes that rotation very good.  Without him they’re well below average.

4. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:53 AM

Is that in the fucking Dungeons & Dragons league? (dying laughing) Such poetry.

(dying laughing).  Is he still talking about baseball stats and Dungeons and Dragons?

5. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:55 AM

I’m not sure, actually. I prefer to live in the past, though.

6. tyger (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:57 AM

You know who should have taken steroids and, because I want to, I’m assuming he never did?

Pedro Martinez.

7. BellwetherMeltdown (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:00 AM

Geovany Soto is good at baseball!

God, even two years ago, hell even at this point last year, who’da thunk?

8. BellwetherMeltdown (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:00 AM

MB your header says “KEVIN HART STATS”

9. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:04 AM

Thanks, BM.  It’s fixed now.

10. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:05 AM

If Pedro didn’t take steroids, and they really do help you improve, I can’t imagine how good he’d have been from about ‘97 to ‘03.  We’re already talking about the best stretch in the history of baseball for a pitcher.

11. tyger (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:05 AM

If Pedro didn’t take steroids, and they really do help you improve,

Or if they just help a pitcher stay healthy a few more years.

12. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:06 AM

God, even two years ago, hell even at this point last year, who’da thunk?

Nobody.  I remember seeing some of the projections for Soto last year and being optimistic, but also being skeptical at the same time. 

We can stop saying the Cubs have developed a star position player since blah blah blah now.  Soto is a star.

13. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:07 AM

Or if they just help a pitcher stay healthy a few more years.

Good point.  Imagine if that stretch has been from ‘96 to ‘07.  We’d be talking about the greatest pitcher in the history of the game.

Of course, as you said, this assumes he didn’t take them and I’m not so sure.

14. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:18 AM

There is one aspect of the steroid issue that has yet to be fully exposed, and I wish it would be: the rampant use and abuse of PED’s in the Latin American academies.  Oftentimes, the coaches at these academies give these drugs to players at a very young age, 16 or 17, and it is not an uncommon phenomenon.  Now that several teams own academies down there, it’s hard to believe MLB, or, at the very least the GM’s and/or the scouting staffs know what’s going on and turn a blind eye. The complicity of the MLB owners and team officials is yet-to-be-fully explored dimension of the steroid issue and one I would like to see developed.

15. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:19 AM

Good God, I hope Soto performs this way.  We haven’t have a talent like this for quite some time. Maybe since Sandberg.

16. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:21 AM

I hate to mention Canseco, but what did he say?  investigate Orza, Fehr and Selig and you’ll find the truth. 

It’s pretty funny that the least reputable person in all of this has been the most credible.

17. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:22 AM

Good God, I hope Soto performs this way.  We haven’t have a talent like this for quite some time. Maybe since Sandberg.

It’s been a long time.  The only player on the Cubs more valuable than Soto is Rich Harden, but I think we all know that Soto is more likely to get the playing time than Harden so it will make Soto more valuable.  Only Ryan Dempster was more valuable in 2008 than Soto (and not by much).

18. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:25 AM

perhaps the best quote yet on the whole cheating/steroids issue (from MGL):

If you want to rail about how wrong and terrible “cheating” and using illegal drugs are, in this context, I’ll make a list of all the terrible legal and moral transgretions in the world, from the worst to the “best”, and you can call me in 10 or 20 years when we get to PED’s.

Exactly.  It’s so far down the list most people can’t even count that high.

19. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:27 AM

MGL in response to Neyer’s article (a good point):

Tango, you talk about the “phony outrage” by much of the mainstream media.  I’m sorry but I have to put Rob’s comment, “I wish it weren’t true” in the same category.  I can’t claim that Rob does not wish it weren’t true (I don’t know what he wishes or does not wish for), but seriously why should anyone care (much) if A-Rod took PED’s or not, any more that we care whether certain pitchers in the HOF threw spitters (when they were illegal) or that many of the players in the HOF took greenies or whatever they took before PED’s came along.

20. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:29 AM

I hate to mention Canseco, but what did he say?  investigate Orza, Fehr and Selig and you’ll find the truth. 

It’s pretty funny that the least reputable person in all of this has been the most credible.


It’s pretty telling, when you think about it: the only guy that has been credible is a scumbucket like Canseco.  It tells me that Fehr, Orza, Selig and a lot of the owners are even worse people than Canseco.  But has it ever been different?  Since when have the woners and/or MLBPA ever stepped up when there was a problem? It seems to me it’s always the players stepping up, calling it like it is.  Then the writers, who if they couldn’t see what was going on in the locker rooms with coke, greenies, and ‘roids, just weren’t doing their job, pile on with phony moral ourage.

Cocaine?  Raines, Hernandez, and other players stepped up.

Greenies?  Schmidt, among other players, admitted it was a problem.

Steroids? Caminiti, Canseco, Schilling, and other players stepped up.

Where were the owners? Where was the MLBPA? Where was the BBWAA?

21. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:29 AM

excellent comment:

This (the “outrage” and disillusionment) is what happens in a game that fetishizes records, cross-era comparisons, great feats, “the numbers,” and its “immortals” and then packages itself with misty-eyed sentimentality and ginned up nostalgia: unbelievable disbelief about a 5 or 6 year-old failed drug test taken at a time when a rule was hardly enforced.  Instead of placing the infraction in context, it’s viewed as a betrayal of Sacred Baseball. Yes,let’s move on.  But difficult to do in a game that insists upon looking out the rear window of the car as it moves forward.

I wish there were more sites like The Book blog.  I wish they were all like that.

22. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:31 AM

Who wrote that comment on TBB, MB? They should be enshrined in the ACB Hall of Rational Beings.

23. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:31 AM

Sorry, but I’m going to keep quoting these comments as they are refreshing.  This one from Tango:

The White American Male Adult (WAMA) thinks nothing of a rock star that is fueled by drugs.  Indeed, even if the artist himself says that the drug improves his artistic qualities, this is seen as a good thing.  You can take all the vices in the world, pump it into the body of a rock star, and if Sgt Pepper is the result, then the world will be at your feet.

But not baseball.  Oh no, not baseball.

In WAMA’s mind, someone has to play the other character in the Madonna-Whore Complex, and that character is baseball.  May god have mercy on the soul who dares treat baseball as a whore.

He’s right on about that.  An artist, movie star or musician takes drugs and it’s cool, but how dare a baseball player do it!

24. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:33 AM

It’s from this thread (mostly the comments) where Tango pointed out Neyer’s column (then I posted it here too).  Good stuff over there:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/aroid/

25. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:33 AM

That’s a great point by Tango.  We should get an interview with that guy.

26. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:34 AM

This from Colin over in the same thread:

The winner in the media’s contest to say the most absurd thing popular:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2009/02/08/2009-02-08_eating_270m_worth_it_for_the_yankees_to_-2.html

I didn’t read the article as I can tell by the URL that the author is saying the Yankees should eat $270 million and let A-Rod go.  (dying laughing)

27. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:35 AM

That’s a great point by Tango.  We should get an interview with that guy.

I’ve thought about asking him before.  He popped over here once or twice to comment.  I might have to send him an email.  I don’t know if he does that kind of thing though as I’ve not read any interviews.

28. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:37 AM

I don’t know if he does that kind of thing though as I’ve not read any interviews

It can’t hurt to ask. I’d love to pick his brain, not just on stats, but on baseball in general. I really enjoy his take on the game.

29. dylanj (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:37 AM

oh lord. Yankee’s fans are making a strong challenge to Cubs fans for the title of stupidest sports fans alive.

30. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:38 AM

The title of this article made me laugh:  Hicks betrayed by A-Rod.  Being a dumb hick myself, my initial thought was that it was an actual title of an article talking about how hicks felt betrayed and then I realized Hicks is the owner of the Rangers.

31. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:39 AM

Maybe the best quote yet (from Tango):

All I know is that the players themselves were so concerned about a level playing field that they did nothing at all to ensure it.

Yep.  The playing field comments are kind of silly when the players knew this was going on and did absolutely nothing to keep the playing field level.  They did nothing.

32. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:41 AM

The Big Lead pointed out something interesting yesterday: Selena Roberts has a book about A-Rod coming out next month.

33. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:41 AM

It can’t hurt to ask. I’d love to pick his brain, not just on stats, but on baseball in general. I really enjoy his take on the game.

Agreed, pmayo.  It’s the best baseball site on the net in my opinion and I’m not sure there’s a baseball writer I’d rather read (not that he’s a great writer).

34. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:42 AM

Seriously?  She has a book out and she only released his name?  What a fucking cunt.

35. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:44 AM

Josh Hamilton was addicted to heroin and cocaine yet was the “feel good story” of 2008.

Hilarious.  I hadn’t thought about that one for awhile.  Here’s a guy taking illicit street drugs and a guy taking injections and closely monitored for his health by a trainer and probably a doctor as well.  Which one do fans dislike more?  The one who took precautions.  (dying laughing)

36. dylanj (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:46 AM

Josh Hamilton was taking street drugs to get high because he was an addict- A-Rod was taking them to cheat at his job.

There is a difference there.

37. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:47 AM

And in the news today, A-Rod comes clean.  I guess we’ll now see if it is true that the public and media will be forgiving and the best thing is for a player to “come clean.”  - MGL

I think we all know people won’t be forgiving.  A-rod could have robbed an old lady at gun point and admitted to doing so and all would have been forgiven, but he broke the rules of baseball and shall never be forgiven.

38. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:48 AM

Seriously?  She has a book out and she only released his name?  What a fucking cunt.


Yep. You can buy it here.

And Torre said in his book that A-Rod thought she was stalking him while she was researching the book.

39. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:48 AM

Josh Hamilton was taking street drugs to get high because he was an addict- A-Rod was taking them to cheat at his job.

But Hamilton was an addict who used by choice, DJ.  A-Rod took the drugs by choice. 

And we don’t know why Hamilton began using them.  It could have been that he believed smoking 3 rocks before a game improved his performance.

40. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:51 AM

And we don’t know why Hamilton began using them.  It could have been that he believed smoking 3 rocks before a game improved his performance

Not to mention that opiates do a helluva lot better job than cortisone at soothing those day-to-day aches and pains that athletes have.

41. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:52 AM

Very interesting:

I see PED use as a sacrifice the player makes to better himself.  The same way excessive weight-lifting can be harmful in the long run.  The same way being home schooled when you’re 13 years old in order to train 12 hours a day to be an Olympic gymnast can have a disastrous effect on your future mental state.

When everyone’s doing it, can you really blame a player for just trying to keep up?  Not to imply in ARod’s case that he wouldn’t be able to keep up without them - but in a general sense.

There’s always going to be something that’s ahead of the test, and the guys that do it will have an advantage.

I can’t blame the players much at all.

42. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:54 AM

Not to mention that opiates do a helluva lot better job than cortisone at soothing those day-to-day aches and pains that athletes have.

True.  It’s like a pain pill in that way and that may be how he became addicted.

I think the point is that both were taking drugs that were illegal to use in baseball and illegal to use in the United States.  I’m not privy to the mental thoughts of either one when they began using so I can’t comment on that.  I can only comment on what we know and that’s that both took illegal drugs and one is a feel good story and one is vilified.

43. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:55 AM

Josh Hamilton was taking street drugs to get high because he was a typical ex-addict. (dying laughing)

Fixed.

44. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:56 AM

new thread up

45. Mercurial Outfielder (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:56 AM

46. dylanj (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:57 AM

meh- im tired of the a-rod mess already. He cheated and probably always has been and has stupid frosted tips. Thats about all I know/care about.

Oh, Pmayo that Boat video from SNL was a great find.

47. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 09:58 AM

I can only comment on what we know and that’s that both took illegal drugs and one is a feel good story and one is vilified.

One player is one of the most naturally gifted people in the history of the game who took drugs that stripped him of his ability and will to live before enduring the painful process of kicking the habit and returning to form.

The other player is one of the most naturally gifted people in the history of the game who took drugs that augmented his ability.

48. dylanj (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 10:03 AM

+ 1

49. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 10:06 AM

The other player is one of the most naturally gifted people in the history of the game who took drugs that augmented his ability.

but who cares what the result was?  Players in the 80s took cocaine as a PED and many became addicted (Tim Raines will not get into the HOF because of this, but Hamilton is seen as a success story).  heroin eases the pain and is therefore a PED.  Both cocaine and heroin (what Hamilton was addicted to) are PEDs and he may very well have begun taking them to improve his game, which is the same thing A-Rod did.

50. MB21 (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 10:10 AM

You guys seem to think there is extra value as to the reason why drugs were taken.  I don’t know why they were taken, but I’m quite sure A-Rod faced pressures to take them that Hamilton never did. 

The bottom line is that both took illegal drugs, both have admitted it, and are now being treated differently.  This has nothing to do with one trying to improve their performance.  Football players do it all the time and nobody gives a shit. 

This is about home runs and the record book.  If it weren’t, football players would be vilified in the same way baseball players are.

51. Boomer (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 07:48 PM

I’m on a boat muthafucka!



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