2009 PROJECTIONS
Rich Harden | Carlos Zambrano | Ryan Dempster | Ted Lilly | Sean Marshall | Kevin Gregg | Aaron Heilman | Chad Gaudin | Carlos Marmol | Angel Guzman | Neal Cotts | Luis Vizcaino | Kevin Hart | Jeff Samardzija | Geovany Soto
GEOVANY SOTO STATS
Fan Graphs | The Hardball Times | ESPN | Baseball Reference | Cubs.com | Baseball Prospectus
Soto won the rookie of the year award in 2008 and looks to build on that tremendous season with another one. He was arguably the best catcher in all of baseball and while I always worry about a player entering his second full season, Soto's projections are very, very good. There's no reason to believe he won't not only do what he did last year, but actually improve a bit as well.
Several of us came up with some playing time estimates for the Cubs position players and here are the average plate appearances for the 13 players we're going to do:
Soto 569
Bako 157
Lee 644
Fontenot 582
Ramirez 653
Theriot 604
Soriano 651
Fukudome 469
Bradley 479
Miles 314
Johnson 412
Gathright 163
Hoffpauir 204
That's 5900 plate appearances leaving about 350 or so for the pitchers and pinch hitters, or replacement level producers. I've also added the CBS Sportsline projections that can be found in a nice little spreadsheet here.
| SOTO | PA | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| CAIRO | 440 | 16 | 42 | 54 | 0.289 | 0.359 | 0.492 |
| MARCELS | 488 | 18 | 50 | 98 | 0.291 | 0.366 | 0.495 |
| ZIPS | 550 | 25 | 56 | 113 | 0.294 | 0.367 | 0.521 |
| JAMES | 565 | 23 | 62 | 118 | 0.293 | 0.37 | 0.499 |
| CHONE | 475 | 17 | 54 | 101 | 0.279 | 0.363 | 0.474 |
| PECOTA | 551 | 25 | 61 | 116 | 0.288 | 0.37 | 0.519 |
| CBS | 500 | 28 | 60 | 120 | 0.29 | 0.366 | 0.512 |
| AVERAGE | 514 | 22 | 55 | 104 | 0.289 | 0.366 | 0.503 |
That's exceptional for a catcher.
I'm using the WAR chart from Beyond the Box Score to complete the roster rather than the one provided by Colin Wyers. It includes baserunning, which I'm going to leave at 0 for all players even though that's not realistic. We know Theriot is a below average baserunner, but the sample each year is rather small so I'm leaving everyone at average. Besides, the best baserunners aren't going to add much more than 5 runs and the majority of them will be between -1 and 1. Also, I'm going to be posting a 3-year average UZR chart later today for the Cubs position players and will use that as their defensive value. Catchers aren't included in UZR and there really isn't any decent statistic that measures a catcher's defense so I'm going to guess for the catchers. I'm using 0.5, or rather 5 runs for Soto because it seems all the pitchers like throwing to him. If you'd prefer average, take away 0.5 WAR and you're good to go.
Although I'm listing Soto as above average, I'm not at all sure that he is. It won't make much difference so it's not a big deal.
| Per 700 PAs | ||||||||||||
| Hitter | Pos | PA | OBP | SLG | Hit | BR | Pos | Fld | Rep | WAR | FA $ | WAR |
| Soto | CA | 569 | .366 | .503 | 2.81 | 0.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 6.56 | $26.2 | 5.3 |
Geovany Soto is good at baseball!
+/- $WAR: $76.21 million
Running total for team projected wins (updated as I do each profile)
Replacement level team: 48.6 wins
Kevin Gregg: 1.08 WAR
Rich Harden: 5.75 WAR
Carlos Zambrano: 3.65 WAR
Ryan Dempster: 3.42 WAR
Ted Lilly: 2.92 WAR
Sean Marshall: 1.84 WAR
Aaron Heilman: 0.61 WAR
Chad Gaudin: 0.52 WAR
Carlos Marmol: 1.41 WAR
Angel Guzman: 0.11 WAR
Neal Cotts: 0.31 WAR
Luis Vizcaino: 0.42 WAR
Kevin Hart: -0.06 WAR
Jeff Samardzija: -0.13 WAR
Geovany Soto: 5.3 WAR
TOTAL: 75.5 wins

1. Stuart Turkeylink (view all comments) — Feb 10, 2009 @ 08:48 AM
Perez is average with the ability to be above average. Pelfrey was above average last year and improving. Niese is below average, but he was a 21-year-old pitching in the bigs for the first time.
I wouldn’t take this rotation over CHC’s, but I’d take it over any other in the NL.