If someone can point me to where those numbers are (if someone else has them) that would be great

I think it varies from player to player.  Juan Pierre is going to hit a higher percentage of singles whereas Soto will hit a higher percentage of doubles.  The best thing might be to use Soto’s career average or look at B-ref’s similar players and combine their numbers to get an average.

30.198% of Soto’s non home run his have been doubles.  1.485% have been triples.

b, if you have time, what do you get for each of 2008 and 2009 if you adjust his babip to .300 and his HR/FB rate to 10%?  I can check it out later if you’re not interested or don’t have time.

b, if you have time, what do you get for each of 2008 and 2009 if you adjust his babip to .300 and his HR/FB rate to 10%?  I can check it out later if you’re not interested or don’t have time.

I can do those, one sec

Oops.  You already found what i was thinking of.

Let me just throw this out there. MB you still think Soto is the second coming of the crappy bust of a catcher 15 years ago (Yes I forgot his name again). You conversely say we can’t count on catching statistics and then use them to support your argument. You also down play his offensive ability. He’s not going to be Joe Mauer, but 2008 is more of an indication of his ceiling and 2009 is the indication of his basement.

That needs to be taken into account. We don’t have a reliable way to formulate catchers defense. Add in the fact that he can hit like a fucking monster for a catcher when he’s right and I think you’re really selling him short.

2008 numbers with a .300 BABIP and a 10% HR/FB (assuming the extra HRs are outs) would be .249/.339/.529, with a wOBA of .342

Soto did have a 10% HR/FB in 2009, so if you figure a slight bump up from what I have above it looks like he’s been a .342 wOBA catcher both years

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2009/11/2010-hitter-projections.html

CHONE is out for batters

Cubs: http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/CHN2010.htm

Let me just throw this out there. MB you still think Soto is the second coming of the crappy bust of a catcher 15 years ago (Yes I forgot his name again).

No.  I’ve only mentioned Wilkins as a catcher for the Cubs who not only had a great season, but a far better one than Soto did and then turned to shit.

You conversely say we can’t count on catching statistics and then use them to support your argument.

No.  I’ve never said that.

You also down play his offensive ability.

No.  I’ve never done that either.

He’s not going to be Joe Mauer, but 2008 is more of an indication of his ceiling and 2009 is the indication of his basement.

Obviously that is true since 2008 was a better season and “ceiling” is a term we use to describe what a player can do at his best.

That needs to be taken into account.

What does?

We don’t have a reliable way to formulate catchers defense.

True, but that doesn’t mean we ignore the methods that are already out there.  UZR is quite unreliable and so is wOBA, but we use those all the time. 

Shawn is right.  All I’ve said is that Soto had one very lucky season and one very unlucky season.  We tend to think Soto can be what he was in 2008 and justify it by luck-adjusting his 2009 numbers without doing the same for the 2008 ones.  Soto was not and will not be as good as he was in 2008 and he won’t be as bad as he was in 2009.  If you’re going to adjust one set of numbers you should do both full seasons. 

Soto is a good ballplayer.  He’s not the all-star/superstar that he was in 2008 and he’s not below average either.  He’s probably a 3 WAR catcher, which is pretty damn good in my opinion.

CHONE has Soto at .291/.361/.504 for 2010

delete

I really don’t understand the high projections for Fox.  The guy has absolutely no strike zone judgment, and can’t get to anything on the outer third.  His projections, IMHO, are wildly optimistic.

The guy crushed pitches in 2008 and didn’t hit them as hard in 2009. It’s that simple. It wasn’t a change in luck, but rather performance level.

Soto also had two nontrivial injuries in 2009 that he probably came back too soon from (shoulder at the beginning of the season, oblique midway though)

In other words, you can’t just say “well, Adam Dunn is lucky because he has a high HR/FB ratio.” The guy has a high HR/FB ratio because he’s corn-fed strong. If you want to look at luck in terms of a player’s HR totals you should look at the hittracker online numbers. Those tell you how many long fly balls found their way over the fence, which is what you’re really trying to get at when you use HR/FB as a proxy for luck.

So basically luck-neutral he’s been a .340 wOBA hitter each year as a starter.

I disagree with this, because to get this number you have to take his HR/FB numbers in 2008 down to 10% due to “good luck” in 2008. I don’t think that’s the right thing do to. Take his BABIP numbers down and leave the power numbers where they’re at (minus the “lucky doubles and triples”).

Holy crap for Soriano’s CHONE projection.  That’s worse than Bill James, I think.

Holy crap for Soriano’s CHONE projection.  That’s worse than Bill James, I think.

Yeah, I saw that and threw up in my mouth a little

We better hope those CHONE projections are wrong, because that’s a shitty fucking offense if it’s right.

I think in any projection of the Cubs, we should be very, very, very careful with the projections for Baker, Fox, Soriano, and Soto.  There is way too much noise in their 2009 numbers.

does CHONE?

Not sure. Has Rally actually provided the guts of his system?

Take his BABIP numbers down and leave the power numbers where they’re at (minus the “lucky doubles and triples”).

I don’t see much point in making adjustments unless you’re going to make all the ones you can.  Consider this: in only 3 seasons in Soto’s career has he hit more than 9 home runs (2007 with Iowa, 2008 with Chicago and 2009 with Chicago).  Prior to 2007 his career high was 9 in 2004.  He hit 19 home runs from 2004-2006 and then hit 26 at AAA in 2007 and 29 overall (3 in Chicago).  He hit 23 the next year and 11 this past year.  Soto was never a power hitter coming up in the organization and his power is probably only going to go down.  2007 and 2008 look like the outliers to me.  It’s just like Rich Hill and his walks being under control.  They weren’t. 

Here are Soto’s career home run numbers

2001: 1
2002: 3
2003: 2
2004: 9
2005: 4
2006: 6
2007: 29
2008: 23
2010: 13

What do Soto’s 2008 and 2009 / lines look like if you account for xBABIP-BABIP luck, but not the HR/FB “luck?”

The 2009 one is the same, since I didn’t do that adjustment. The 2008 one would be

.259/.347/.477 and wOBA .347

I think we’re on the verge of killing ourselves with endless hypotheticals here.

For what it’s worth, Soto’s wOBA+ in 2008 was only 110.  It’s not like he really had a monstrous season at the plate.  He was better than average, but Derrek Lee’s wOBA+ in 2008 was 107 and we all thought he should be traded.  Ryan Theriot’s was 103 in 2008.

For what it’s worth, Soto’s wOBA+ in 2008 was only 110.  It’s not like he really had a monstrous season at the plate.  He was better than average, but Derrek Lee’s wOBA+ in 2008 was 107 and we all thought he should be traded.  Ryan Theriot’s was 103 in 2008.

You know just as well as everyone else that a wOBA of 110 from a catcher is worth much more than a wOBA of 103 from a SS and much, much more than a wOBA of 107 from a first baseman.

Consider this: in only 3 seasons in Soto’s career has he hit more than 9 home runs (2007 with Iowa, 2008 with Chicago and 2009 with Chicago).  Prior to 2007 his career high was 9 in 2004.  He hit 19 home runs from 2004-2006 and then hit 26 at AAA in 2007 and 29 overall (3 in Chicago).  He hit 23 the next year and 11 this past year.  Soto was never a power hitter coming up in the organization and his power is probably only going to go down.  2007 and 2008 look like the outliers to me.  It’s just like Rich Hill and his walks being under control.  They weren’t.

There’s a huge difference between Hill’s case and Soto’s. In Hill’s case, he was always playing at an old age for his playing level. The opposite was true with Soto. It’s more likely a young catcher develops power a few years into his career than a pitcher develops control many years into his.

I don’t think Soto is going to put up the numbers he did in 2008. His BABIP was unsustainably high. But there’s no reason “correct” his HR/FB numbers to 10%.

So Soto is somewhere between (AVG/OBP/SLG/wOBA) .256/.360/.419/.340 and .259/.347/.477/.347. That seems reasonable.

email, Shawn

apparently Levine said Castro and Cashner were untouchable

Why would you impose a 10% HR/FB rate when there’s no reason to do so, and instead evidence that you shouldn’t?

For some reason I was thinking normal was 10%, but I was clearly wrong.  I still think the point stands that Geovany Soto’s true talent level is around that of a .340 wOBA hitter.  That’s plenty good for a catcher who isn’t hurting you defensively.  He’ll be a valuable part of the Cubs in 2010 and beyond.

I take that back. After accounting for regression, I’d probably have Soto closer to .340 than .345.

Does anyone have any thoughts on using the location of pitches from pitch FX to get at catcher defense? It seems that would be the best way to get at their ability to block the plate.

I also think it’s important to note that Geovany Soto was NOT a power hitter until 2007.  I’m not convinced he is now.  2 years of excellent power doesn’t make a power hitter.  I think more realistically he’s a 15-17 home runs per season guy, which is just fine from a catcher who is going to hit for about a .340 wOBA and give you average defense.  He’s very valuable.  I just don’t think he’s as valuable as we used to think. 

What i find more interesting at this point are Soriano’s projections.  He’s in his 30s, won’t be getting any better, but a healthier Soriano would, you’d think, be better than the two projections we have so far.  If he isn’t that is one ugly fucking contract the rest of the way.  I’d be happy if the Cubs can get 3 league average years out of him the rest of the way.

(dying laughing) @ Tony Romo. This Packers Cowboys game has been hilarious

2 guys I’ve never heard of make up the 4 Cardinals who are projected by CHONE to be above average hitters:  http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/SLN2010.htm

What is CHONE’s average anyway? That threshold has always seemed kind of high to me

What is CHONE’s average anyway? That threshold has always seemed kind of high to me

What do you mean by average?

I mean what they set the average to be to say whether someone is above average. Their ‘average’ production seems kind of high considering how many regulars are below that number

I’m not sure.  I don’t think we’ll know until he comes out with the spreadsheet.

2 guys I’ve never heard of make up the 4 Cardinals who are projected by CHONE to be above average hitters: 

Not to mention the fact that the Cardinals waived one of them (Hoffpauir) after the 2009 season. (dying laughing)

Here’s a question for everyone:

If a batter, say Curtis Granderson, gets a hit and a runner, say Placido Polanco, gets thrown out (not on a force play) does the batter get a hit? Based on what I can tell from my queries on the pitch F/X database and baseball reference’s website, the answer is “no.” Isn’t that wrong?

I count 505 “hits” for Curtis Granderson over the last 3 years. Baseball reference and ESPN both have him with 497 over the same time span. What’s interesting to me is that there are 8 instances where Granderson got a hit AND a runner got thrown out. He was thrown out on 3 of those occasion. But he should still get credited with a hit on ALL of those instances… right?

If a batter, say Curtis Granderson, gets a hit and a runner, say Placido Polanco, gets thrown out (not on a force play) does the batter get a hit? Based on what I can tell from my queries on the pitch F/X database and baseball reference’s website, the answer is “no.” Isn’t that wrong?

You’re correct - that’s not a hit according to the arcane rules of baseball

You’re correct - that’s not a hit according to the arcane rules of baseball

That’s stupid. Baseball has really, really stupid scoring rules.

Granderson definitely gets a hit there, right? He reached first safely and every runner safely advanced at least one base.

Since Inge was on 2nd that should be a hit based on how I’ve interpreted the rules.

This is why they need people to come in with spreadsheets and databases to tell them how things are done. Holy hell that’s dumb. Inconsequential because it doesn’t happen often… but dumb.

It’s pretty stupid.  I remember when Michael Barrett was nearly thrown out at 3rd base on a fucking double when Barrett was on 2nd base to begin with.  That would have cost whoever hit the ball a base hit.

I remember when Michael Barrett was nearly thrown out at 3rd base on a fucking double when Barrett was on 2nd base to begin with.

Barrett would be one of a very few mlb players who could pull off getting thrown out advancing one base on a double.  Even Theriot hasn’t done that. Yet.

Barrett would be one of a very few mlb players who could pull off getting thrown out advancing one base on a double.  Even Theriot hasn’t done that. Yet.

Yeah, I still remember that game.  it was in colorado.  A bloop down the left field line and Barrett goes half way, dances back to 2nd, dances back to the middle, dances back to 2nd and then he’s fucking out while the batter got a double.  i couldn’t believe it.

But according to the database cross-referencing I’m doing, it would also not be a hit if a batter hit a triple, a runner at 3rd scored and a runner at 2nd got thrown out at home.

Are you sure that one was not counted as a hit, shawn?

But according to the database cross-referencing I’m doing, it would also not be a hit if a batter hit a triple, a runner at 3rd scored and a runner at 2nd got thrown out at home.

If a batter hits a home run and one of the runners on base misses a base it’s not a home run or a hit.  Some douchebag who doesn’t know how to touch bases would cost his teammate a home run.  (dying laughing)

Are you sure that one was not counted as a hit, shawn?

It’s not a hit according to the databases I’m looking at. Granderson had 505 plays where he got a single, double, triple, or HR. On 8 of those plays, someone got thrown out somewhere. On some of those, the runner got thrown out after safely advancing at least one base. Yet on ESPN and baseball reference, Granderson only has 497 hits over the same time span (2007-2009). This means that all 8 plays where a runner was thrown out must not count as hits.

Here are the rules on base hits.  I haven’t had time to read through them yet.

10.05 Base Hits
A base hit is a statistic credited to a batter when such batter reaches base safely, as set forth in this Rule 10.05.
(a) The official scorer shall credit a batter with a base hit when:
(1) the batter reaches first base (or any succeeding base) safely on a fair ball that settles on the ground, that touches a fence before being touched by a fielder or that clears a fence;
(2) the batter reaches first base safely on a fair ball hit with such force, or so slowly, that any fielder attempting to make a play with the ball has no opportunity to do so;
Rule 10.05(a)(2) Comment: The official scorer shall credit a hit if the fielder attempting to handle the ball cannot make a play, even if such fielder deflects the ball from or cuts off another fielder who could have put out a runner.
(3) the batter reaches first base safely on a fair ball that takes an unnatural bounce so that a fielder cannot handle it with ordinary effort, or that touches the pitcher’s plate or any base (including home plate) before being touched by a fielder and bounces so that a fielder cannot handle the ball with ordinary effort;
(4) the batter reaches first base safely on a fair ball that has not been touched by a fielder and that is in fair territory when the ball reaches the outfield, unless in the scorer’s judgment the ball could have been handled with ordinary effort;
(5) a fair ball that has not been touched by a fielder touches a runner or an umpire, unless a runner is called out for having been touched by an Infield Fly, in which case the official scorer shall not score a hit; or
(6) a fielder unsuccessfully attempts to put out a preceding runner and, in the official scorer’s judgment, the batter-runner would not have been put out at first base by ordinary effort.
Rule 10.05(a) Comment: In applying Rule 10.05(a), the official scorer shall always give the batter the benefit of the doubt. A safe course for the official scorer to follow is to score a hit when exceptionally good fielding of a ball fails to result in a putout.
(b) The official scorer shall not credit a base hit when a:
(1) runner is forced out by a batted ball, or would have been forced out except for a fielding error;
(2) batter apparently hits safely and a runner who is forced to advance by reason of the batter becoming a runner fails to touch the first base to which such runner is advancing and is called out on appeal. The official scorer shall charge the batter with a time at bat but no hit;
(3) pitcher, the catcher or any infielder handles a batted ball and puts out a preceding runner who is attempting to advance one base or to return to his original base, or would have put out such runner with ordinary effort except for a fielding error. The official scorer shall charge the batter with a time at bat but no hit;
(4) fielder fails in an attempt to put out a preceding runner and, in the scorer’s judgment, the batter-runner could have been put out at first base; or
Rule 10.05(b) Comment: Rule 10.05(b) shall not apply if the fielder merely looks toward or feints toward another base before attempting to make the putout at first base.
(5) runner is called out for interference with a fielder attempting to field a batted ball, unless in the scorer’s judgment the batter-runner would have been safe had the interference not occurred.

10.06 Determining Value Of Base Hits
The official scorer shall score a base hit as a one-base hit, two-base hit, three-base hit or home run when no error or putout results, as follows:
(a) Subject to the provisions of Rules 10.06(b) and 10.06(c), it is a one-base hit if the batter stops at first base; it is a two-base hit if the batter stops at second base; it a three-base hit if the batter stops at third base; and it is a home run if the batter touches all bases and scores.
(b) When, with one or more runners on base, the batter advances more than one base on a safe hit and the defensive team makes an attempt to put out a preceding runner, the scorer shall determine whether the batter made a legitimate two-base hit or three-base hit, or whether the batter-runner advanced beyond first base on the fielder’s choice.
Rule 10.06 Comment: The official scorer shall not credit the batter with a three-base hit when a preceding runner is put out at home plate, or would have been out but for an error. The official scorer shall not credit the batter with a two-base hit when a preceding runner trying to advance from first base is put out at third base, or would have been outbut for an error. The official scorer shall not, however, with the exception of the above, determine the value of base-hits by the number of bases advanced by a preceding runner. A batter may deserve a two-base hit even though a preceding runner advances one or no bases; a batter may deserve only a one-base hit even though he reaches second base and a preceding runner advances two bases. For example:
(1) Runner on first. Batter hits to right fielder, who throws to third base in an unsuccessful attempt to put out runner. Batter takes second base. The official scorer shall credit batter with one-base hit. (2) Runner on second. Batter hits fair fly ball. Runner holds up to determine if ball is caught and then advances only to third base, while batter takes second base. The official scorer shall credit batter with two-base hit. (3) Runner on third. Batter hits high, fair fly. Runner takes a lead, then runs back to tag up, thinking the ball will be caught. The ball falls safe, but runner cannot score, although batter has reached second. The official scorer shall credit batter with a two-base hit.
(c) When the batter attempts to make a two-base hit or a three-base hit by sliding, he must hold the last base to which he advances. If a batter-runner overslides and is tagged out before getting back to the base safely, he shall be credited with only as many bases as he attained safely. If a batter-runner overslides second base and is tagged out, the official scorer shall credited him with a one-base hit; if the batter-runner overslides third base and is tagged out, the official scorer shall credit him with a two-base hit.
Rule 10.06(c) Comment: If the batter-runner overruns second or third base and is tagged out trying to return, the official scorer shall credit the batter-runner with the last base he touched. If a batter-runner runs past second base after reaching that base on his feet, attempts to return and is tagged out, the official scorer shall credit the batter with a two-base hit. If a batter-runner runs past third base after reaching that base on his feet, attempts to return and is tagged out, the official scorer shall credit the batter with a three-base hit.
(d) When the batter, after making a safe hit, is called out for having failed to touch a base, the last base the batter reached safely shall determine if the official scorer shall credit him with a one-base hit, a two-base hit or a three-base hit. If a batter-runner is called out after missing home plate, the official scorer shall credit him with a three-base hit. If a batter-runner is called out for missing third base, the official scorer shall credit him with a two-base hit. If a batter-runner is called out for missing second base, the official scorer shall credit him with a one-base hit. If a batter-runner is called out for missing first base, the official scorer shall charge him with a time at bat, but no hit.
(e) When a batter-runner is awarded two bases, three bases or a home run under the provisions of Rules 7.05 or 7.06(a), the official scorer shall credit the batter-runner with a two-base hit, a three-base hit or a home run, as the case may be.
(f) Subject to the provisions of Rule 10.06(g), when a batter ends a game with a safe hit that drives in as many runs as are necessary to put his team in the lead, the official scorer shall credit such batter with only as many bases on his hit as are advanced by the runner who scores the winning run, and then only if the batter runs out his hit for as many bases as are advanced by the runner who scores the winning run.
Rule 10.06(f) Comment: The official scorer shall apply this rule even when the batter is theoretically entitled to more bases because of being awarded an “automatic” extra-base hit under various provisions of Rules 6.09 and 7.05.
The official scorer shall credit the batter with a base touched in the natural course of play, even if the winning run has scored moments before on the same play. For example, the score is tied in the bottom of the ninth inning with a runner on second base and the batter hits a ball to the outfield that falls for a base hit. The runner scores after the batter has touched first base and continued on to second base but shortly before the batter-runner reaches second base. If the batter-runner reaches second base, the official scorer shall credit the batter with a two-base hit.
(g) When the batter ends a game with a home run hit out of the playing field, the batter and any runners on base are entitled to score.

I’m guessing there is something wrong in the descriptions, shawn.  as long as the runner advances one base it is a base hit.

Seems like it wouldn’t be a hit only if an IF, P or C made the play but from Shawn’s research that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Yeah, I’d say that Gameday is wrong here.  They often make some mistakes that we’ll see from time to time and those have to be ones.  If Inge really did advance one base then it’s a base hit.

Gah. Never mind. There were spring training games in my database. Damnit.

(dying laughing)

It’s just a coincidence that Granderson has exactly as many spring training hits in my database as his teammates have “TOOTBLANs” on his hits.

Sorry about that. I was really confused by what I was seeing.

I was just giving you shit, shawn.  I do have to say that I think it would be damn near impossible for MLB to screw a hitter out of a base hit these days.

Oh yeah, the CHONE projections have been the most accurate projection system around since 2005 in terms of projecting team performance with the projections.

If the Cubs wanted to improve 2nd base, Polanco is -4, Hudson is -2 and Lopez is -5.  Polanco is the superior defender easily making up for the difference with Hudson.  Fontenot and Baker are -9 and -10 respectively.

Pat Burrell: +6
.225/.340/.400

Slash lines for the other CF MB mentioned and Fukudome

Fukudome +2
.258/.363/.403

Marlon Byrd +3
.273/..335/.433 (ugh at that OBP)

Mike Cameron: -4
.236/.321/.420 (double ugh at that OBP)

Someone else we haven’t talked about lately for 2b is Uggla. Klaw is apparently high on him right now and thinks he’s showing signs of more improvement at the plate

Uggla +12
.252/.350/.468

I found this quote in one of the threads on Tango’s site and thought it was worth posting here.  Brian Cashman said this:

“What they were when they went into October, that’s what they still are regardless of how well or how poorly they played in October.”

Any person still thinking that teams value guys who perform in October need to read that about 250 times a day.

Was it just me, or did Soto seem a bit pull-happy this year?

Is it possible for the discrepancy to be based on defensive alignment due to his consistency in pulling the ball this year?

Just a novice stat guy here.

Was it just me, or did Soto seem a bit pull-happy this year?

I think that was more a result of his struggles.  He’s a pull hitter and hit into some poor luck this season.  If he does the same thing he did in 2009 this coming season his line will look a lot different.

who’s that from MB?

who’s that from MB?

John Perrotto on BP.  He covers the Pirates or used to.  I think he still does, but he also writes for BP.

DeRosa was one of the hearts and souls of the last two divison championship teams (along with Wood, Zambrano, Dempster, Lilly, Ramirez, Lee, Theriot, Soriano, Soto, Marmol and others).

fixed.

Wow, that Colts-Pats game was fucking awesome

I missed the game but it sounds like Belichick fucked up big-time, going for it on 4th down on their own 28, ahead by 6 with 2 minutes left? wtf?

Bellichick screwed the fucking pooch with that shit. It was just like call Carroll made in the USC-Texas Rose Bowl. Fucking dumb.

Bellichick screwed the fucking pooch with that shit. It was just like call Carroll made in the USC-Texas Rose Bowl. Fucking dumb.

but weren’t the Pats on their own 28 or something? that’s what I read. At least USC was in TX territory, around the 40-45, though I think that was dumb too.

I fucking hate Peyton Manning.

I do too.  Fucking banjo-picking cocksucker.  He is a great player but I dislike him and Eli a lot.

I can’t imagine what Bellichek was thinking. He could have forced the Colts to drive 75 yds with a decent punt and only two timeouts. I’d take my chances even against Manning. Not showing much confidence in their defense which played pretty well for most of the game.

Bellichick fucked up bad. That’s the biggest fuck up I’ve ever seen in the NFL. Man.

It was just like call Carroll made in the USC-Texas Rose Bowl.

Texas would have scored from anywhere on that last drive. Carroll’s only shot to win was to convert that 4th down.

And USC’s play was basically run from midfield.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

HBT has a nice writeup on when NOT to use WAR:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/criminals-of-war/

I’m sure most of us know this stuff, but it is a good reminder as WAR is pretty imperfect and has a long ways to go.