We're now located over here. You can search the ACB Archives here.

2009 Top Cubs Prospects

Baseball America’s Top 30 Cubs Prospects, Part 2:  21-30

We already covered Baseball America’s Tools and Draft Analysis in the first part.  Now we’ll begin looking at the top 30 prospects.  Everything below comes from Baseball America’s 2009 Prospect Handbook.

30. Su-Min Jung, RHP
Born:  April 1, 1990, Bats and throws:  right, 6’2”, 190 lbs.  Signed out of Korea in 2008 by Paul Weaver and Steve Wilson, signing bonus:  $510,000

Jung is a product of Busan High, which also spawned big leaguers Shin Soo Choo and Cha Seung Baek.  Jung opened the season as Busan’s number 3 pitcher, with Tae Kyeong Ahn (signed with the Rangers) the ace.  While Ahn outperformed him, Jung surpassed him as a prospect.  He was pitching at 82-84 mph in March, but boosted his fastball to the upper 80s and touched the low 90s by the end of the summer.  He has a clean arm action and the room to add strength, so he may have more velocity in him.  Jung spins the ball better than most international pitchers and has the makings of a power curveball.  He also started to make some progress with a changeup during instructional league.  other clubs considered Jung the equivalent of a 2nd or 3rd rounder and the Cubs paid him like one.  They’ll unveil him the Arizona League in June.

29. Alex Maestri, RHP
born:  June 1, 1985.  Bats and throws:  right.  6’0”, 185 lbs.  Sighed out of Italy in 2006 by Bill Holmberg

He’s a legitimate prospect, not just a curiousity, with surprising stuff and pitchability given his background.  Maestri showed a lot of promise as a reliever in 2007, but didn’t fare as well when he moved to the rotation in 2008.  The Cubs made the move because he has a deep enough repertoire, but the result was diminished stuff, not to mention a tender shoulder that caused him to be shut down in July.  his fastball went from 87-90 mph when he signed to 90-94 he came out of the bullpen in 2007, but it dropped back down to the upper 80s last year.  His slider, which is one of the best in the system and devastates right handers, also wasn’t as sharp.  Maestri has the potential for an average changeup, and needs and offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest.  He’s athletic and repeats his delivery well allowing him to throw strikes.  Chicago will return Maestri to the bullpen this year and it’s not inconceivable that he could climb from Double-A to the majors this year.

28. Logan Watkins, 2B
Born: August 29, 1989.  Bats left, throws right.  5’11”, 170 lbs.  Drafted:  HS—Goddard, KS, 2008 (21st round).  Signed by Brandon Mozley.

A gifted athlete, he was an all-state quarterback and defensive back for his Kansas high school football team.  He swings the bat well and has a disciplined, contact-oriented approach, though he’ll need to get much stronger to hit with any authority.  Speed is Watkins’ most obvious tool, and he might cover more ground at shortstop than Arizona League teammate Starlin Castro and Junior Lake.  He played 2nd base, however, while they shared shortstop.  Watkins’ has the range for center field and has a solid arm.  The Cubs still haven’t figured out what to do with all of their young shortstops and where to play Watkins.

27. Matt Cerda, C
Born: June 20, 1990.  Bats left, throws right.  5’9”, 165 lbs.  Drafted: HS—Oceanside, Californian, 2008 (4th round).  Signed by Denny Henderson.

Cerda’s hitting ability has been evident since he starred at the 2001 Little League World Series as an 11-year old.  Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn watched him in action and on television and said, “That’s the sweetest swing I’ve ever seen from a kid that age.”  Though Cerda continued to produce at the plate in high school and at showcases, his future defensive home was less obvious because of his below average size and speed.  The Cubs…made him a catcher.  Cerda gave up 7 passed balls and 16 steals in 13 pro games, but Chicago was pleased with the progress he made in a short time behind the plate.  Focusing on catching responsibilities took away from his hitting in his pro debut, but he did rip a double off Giants prospect Tim Alderson during Instructional League.  The Cubs believe Cerda is strong enough mentally and as a hitter to possibly handle a jump to low Class A for his first full season.  They may also give him some time at 2nd base when he’s not behind the plate.

26. Blake Parker, RHP
Born:  June 19, 1985.  Bats and throws right.  6’3”, 235 lbs.  Drafted:  Arkansas, 2006 (16th round).  Signed by Brian Milner.

The Cubs signed him for $30,000 as a 16th round pitch in 2006, and after he hit .224/.325/.367 in his first pro summer, they too his bat away.  In two years on the mound, Parker has put together a 2.20 ERA, conquered high Class A and put together a nice three-pitch mix.  He has a low-90s sinker that touches 95 mph and often seems to disappear at the plate.  He picked up a changeup from Dae-Uun Rhee who owns the best in the system.  Parker’s changeup shows the makings of becoming a reliable pitch, and his slider is improving as well.  Parker has developed rapidly and might get a big league look at the end of 2009, which he’ll begin in Double-A.

25.  Ty Wright, OF
Born:  Feb 26, 1985.  bats and throws right.  6’0”, 185 lbs.  Drafted:  Oklahoma State, 2007 (7th round).  Signed by Brian Milner.

A four-year starter at Oklahoma State, Wright led the Big 12 in hitting (.405) and set a league record with a 35-game hitting streak as a senior in 2007.  Signed for $42,00 as a seventh-round pick, draws comparisons to Reed Johnson, a fellow gamer who solidified the Cubs’ outfield last year.  Wright showed his grit by playing through a sports hernia for the final two months of the 2008 season.  He has a gift for putting the barrel of the bat on the ball, making steady line-drive contact.  He has gap power and slightly above average speed, a package that could deliver 25-30 doubles, 12-15 homers and 20 steals per year.  Wright has good instincts on the bases and in the outfield, and he’s capable of playing all three spots.  He stuck mostly in left field last year while slowed by the hernia.  Wright’s arm strength merits only a 35 on the 20-80 scouting scale, but he gets rid of the ball quickly and runner challenge him at their own risk.  He racked up 13 assists in just 90 games last season.  One of the most mentally tough players int he system, Wright refuses to let himself fail.  He’s continue to get chances to prove himself, and the next step will be Double-A.

24. Jake Fox, 1B/OF
Born:  July 20, 1982.  Bats and throws right.  6’0”, 210 lbs.  Drafted:  Michigan, 2003 (3rd round).  Signed by Stan Zielinski.

There are scouts who swear that Fox’s plus power would produce 25 homers if he got the chance to play every day in the majors.  The problem is that those longballs would come with a low batting average, plenty of strikeouts and absolutely no defensive ability,  Fox has accumulated 14 big league at-bats in his six seasons in the organization, and he hurt his cause by not performing in Triple-A to start 2008.  That led to a demotion in early May, after which he led the Souther league in slugging (.580).  Fox can crush any fastball out of the park, in part because he sits on fastballs and sells out for power every time.  He can’t handle breaking balls, won’t work counts, and rarely listens to his batting coaches.  Power is Fox’s only tool, and one scout described his defense as “a notch above horrific.”  Drafted as a catcher, he’s now a first baseman/corner outfielder with substandard speed, range, hands and arm strength.  The best-case scenario is for Fox to have a career similar to that of Ryan Garko. 

23.  Tony Thomas, 2B
Born:  July 10, 1986.  Bats and throws right.  5’10”, 185 lbs.  Drafted:  Florida State, 2007 (3rd round).  Signed by Rolando Pino.

The Cubs made Thomas a third-round pick in 2007 after he batted .430 at Florida State and led NCAA Division I in runs (91), doubles (33) and total bases (189).  He entered pro ball with a good-hit, no-field reputation and lived up to it in his debut.  Some club officials considered him a better pure hitter than No. 3 overall pick Josh Vitters.  But after skipping a level and jumping to high Class A in 2008, Thomas did an about-face.  He got off to a good start when pitchers busted him inside and he started to turn on balls, but he didn’t adjust well when they started pitching him on the outer half.  On the other hand, he worked hard on his defense, showed improved range and arm strength and led Florida State league second basemen with a .989 fielding percentage.  The Cubs wondered whether he focused too much on his glove that it took away from his bat.  Thomas righted himself in the postseason, batting a league-best .483 to win MVP honors as Daytona won the FLS title.  He has quick hands, good enough for his size and an aggressive swing.  If he can tighten his strike zone and use the opposite field more, he can get back to hitting for a high average with a healthy amount of doubles.  He’s an average runner who can steal bases thanks to his savvy.  Chicago wants to promote Thomas and double play partner Darwin Barney as a tandem, so they’ll move up to Double-A together this year.

22.  Esmalin Caridad, RHP
born: October 28, 1985.  Bats and throws right.  5’10”, 193 lbs.  Signed:  Dominican Republic, 2007.  Signed by Jose Serra

Caridad has a quick arm and one of the better fastballs in the system, a low-90s heater that tops out at 96 mph.  It induces more groundouts than strikeouts because it flattens out at times and he lacks deception in his delivery.  On the other hand, his smooth mechanics give him terrific control.  The rest of Caridad’s arsenal is ordinary; an average three-quarters breaking ball and a fringy changeup with some splitter action.  Some Cubs officials project Caridad as a starter, but it’s more likely his ultimate role will be as a reliever or swingman.  After a strong Arizona Fall League, he’s ready for Triple-A and could get his first of big league action in 2009.

21. Mitch Atkins, RHP
Born:  October 1, 1985.  Bats and throws right.  6’3”, 225 lbs.  Drafted:  HS—McLeansville,NC, 2004 (7th round).  Signed by Billy Swoope.

Atkins makeup is more impressive than his arsenal, but that didn’t stop him from winning 17 games—one off the minor league lead—and the cubs’ minor league pitcher of the year award in 2008.  His best pitch is an 89-92 mph fastball with average sink; the fastball is more notable for Atkins’ ability to locate it.  Atkins commands his entire repertoire, which also consists of a cutter, curveball and changeup.  His curve has a change to develop into a solid-average pitch.  Atkins has an innate feel for pitching and isn’t afraid to let the hitters put the ball in play.  He has little margin for error and gave up 25 homers last season, but he doesn’t let anything faze him.  A case in point August 3rd against Salt Lake.  Three of the first four batters hit rockets off Atkins who then adjusted so well that he retired the final 16 batters he faced, 11 via strikeouts.  Strong and durable, has yet to miss a minor league start.  Chicago added him to its 40-man roster over the winter and Atkins will audition for a middle relief job in big league camp.  It wouldn’t surprise the Cubs if he eventually carved out a larger role for himself.

Cubs Minor League Positional Rankings: 3B Edition

Welcome to another edition of the future chokers of Chicago! Sam and I had to take a break to soak in the awesomeness of the Cubs farm’s suck. We now present to you, the fans, the top 3B prospects in the system.

1. Josh Vitters

Sam – Turned 19 Aug. 27, 2008. Vitters is really good. Scouts and analysts alike seem to forget he didn’t turn 19 until after he was done playing baseball last season, and as such is really a year ahead of all the other prospects that were drafted with him, since he was working with professional coaches all season last year, even though he didn’t spend more than a few weeks in a full season league due to a wrist injury.  Total line from Peoria (14 PA) and Boise (277 PA) last year: 291 PA, .319/.356/.489, with 28 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 50 K, 13 BB, 38 RBI, 39 R. Didn’t walk much, but batting over .300 and striking out less that 20% of the time is really encouraging from his first taste of professional ball.  His pretty right-handed swing generates some loft, so more time and maturity should lead to more robust power numbers in general.  His ceiling is ridiculous, so saying he could bat .300/.360/.500 for a career almost feels like I could underrate him, and he answered quite a few of his defensive questions last year, playing an adequate 3B, which could easily be average by the time he hits the bigs.  BA’s prospect list aside, I can’t think of 25 position players I’d be more interested in having in the Cubs minor league system right now than Josh Vitters, let alone 50.  The only tool that isn’t really there yet is patience, as evidenced by the walks, and that should develop as he has to be more selective with better pitches/pitchers as he’s promoted through the ranks.  He could push himself up to the bigs quickly with more seasons like last one.  Probably only going to play @ Peoria this year, but Daytona isn’t out of the question depending on the early weather or with a good spring training or early start to the season.  ETA: late season 2012 at the latest.  Barring a couple significant injuries impeding his playing time this year or next, could be ready sooner, such as after Derrek Lee’s contract is up in 2010, with Aramis moving to 1B.

JG – I won’t use his stats because (1)Sam already did, (b)Vitters is a child and mostly projection at this point and (3)R+RBI is just as good (dying laughing). I was fine with the Vitters over Wieters selection in the 2007 at the time, and, frankly, I still kind of am. Vitters is the kind of player that has eeryting going for him tools-wise. He has a SWEET swing, which is typically how lefty swings are described. As you can see above, it’s a compact stroke that gets through the zone quickly. Vitters’ visione tested at something ridiculous like 20/10 (basically, he has better vision than about 99.9 percent of humans on the planet). He can put a good swing on just about any pitch thrown his way, which is why NSBSers will tell you they don’t like him (he won’t walk a ton at this rate). He’s too young to project his power too much, but I picture him putting up .320/.380/.520 lines in his prime while playing at least an average 3B (don’t let MB21 tell you he’s a terrible defender). Expect him to start at Peoria this year, but I don’t see how he doesn’t finish at Daytona (at least) as long as he’s healthy.

Marquez Smith

Sam—turns 24 March 20, 2009.  He crushed Peoria last year (.295/.370/.508 in 360 PA, 35/65 BB/K, 17/4/14 2B/3B/HR), struggled in Daytona (.237/.315/.397 in 146 PA, 12/29 BB/K, 10/1/3 2B/3B/HR) and fared poorly in the Hawaiian Winter League (.211/.286/.421 in 21 PA, 1/6 BB/K, 1/0/1 2B/3B/HR).  Plays good defense @ 3B by all accounts and dabbled @ 2B in Peoria (22 G, 5.14 RF, .983 FP).  His overall line @ Peoria and Daytona (.278/.354/.473 in 506 PA, 47/94 BB/K, 27/5/17 2B/3B/HR) is a pretty good reflection of his overall talent.  He takes some walks, hits some and has some power as well.  Problem is, there’s not a whole ton of time left to become more than what he is, so those talents will have to translate to AA this year or next for him to have any shot with any big club in the future.  Ceiling-wise, .280/.350/.460 is probably the tip of the iceberg, with a more likely career .270/.330/.430 player, assuming he survives another try @ Daytona and the ensuing AA trip.  Just seems to be another typical player in the Cubs system though, will either flame-out in the minors after a good season, or carve out a nice little career for himself.  Not really anything great, but a nice little player to have in the system.

JG —Tyler Colvin’s teammate in college isn’t hitting well enough to play 3B on this team. The team experimented with him at 2B, where his bat would be decent, but we haven’t heard much since then. At this rate, Smith is looking like a bench player or trade bait. It’s pretty sad that we haven’t had one position yet with more than one legitimate prospect…

Sleeper

Sam—John Contreras

, turns 23 April 17, 2009.  Late bloomer on the Dominincan scene, spent his first year in the U.S. last year, batting .283/.363/.579 in 183 PA in the AZL (16/34 BB/K, 12/4/9 2B/3B/HR).  Power is legit, and as long as he can keep his K% from getting out of control as he moves up, he should do well.  Probably does enough on defense to stay @ 3B, although I’ll know more after spending some time @ Fitch Park next week, and a move to 1B isn’t out of the question.  Tough to give a really accurate projection on his ability, but a good rule of thumb is to take their best season in the minors and that’s a good picture of their overall ability, so something .275/.340/.500 is possible, though not likely, given he’s still not played a full season league and will be 23 this year.  Time will tell, and at his age that’s not something he really has.  ETA: 2012

JG—Yeah, most of these guys need to be put to sleep.

The guy I was going to put here is a Gold Glove-caliber defender with a plus-plus arm and a decent bat. The Cubs turned him (Josh Lansford) into a pitcher after the season, so I guess my sleeper for this position is some HS or college 3B that we draft this June.

Past Editions:
C
1B
2B
SS

Baseball America’s Top 30 Cubs Prospects, Part 1: Tools and Draft Analysis

Baseball America’s annual prospect book is a must have in my opinion.  The 2009 edition came out a week or two ago and I’ve been meaning to start a series on the Cubs prospects since I got it, but I’m lazy.  I think Ryno and Sam will eventually complete their prospects series, but this one is solely based on BA’s 2009 Handbook.  I’m going to break this down into 4 parts:  Best Tools and Draft Analysis, 21-30, 11-20, and 1-10.

Each year BA ranks each organizations prospects by their tools (hitting for average, baserunner, defense, infield arm, etc.). 

Best hitter for average:  Josh Vitters
Best power hitter:  Josh Vitters
Best strike-zone discipline:  Sam Fuld
Fastest baserunner:  Tony Campana
Best athlete:  Brandon Guyer
Best fastball:  Jeff Samardzija
Best curveball:  Casey Lambert
Best slider:  Andrew Cashner
Best control:  Esmalin Caridad
Best defensive catcher:  Luis Flores
Best infield arm:  Junior Lake
best defensive outfielder:  Sam Fuld
Best outfield arm:  Kyler Burke

Before you get too excited about the top prospects, here are the Cubs #1 prospects over the last 10 seasons:  Corey Patterson, Corey Patterson, Corey Patterson, Mark Prior, Hee Seop Choi, Angel Guzman, Brian Dopirak, Felix Pie, Felix Pie, and Josh Vitters (also the number 1 prospect in 2009).  The only player who has amounted to anything at all on that list is Mark Prior and he’s spent the last 30 or 40 years on the DL.

Josh Vitters was the Cubs 1st round pick (3rd overall) in the 2007 draft.  He has all kinds of talent, but here are the last 10 first picks for the Cubs:  Ben Christensen, Luis Montanez, Mark Prior, Bobby Brownlie, Ryan Harvey, Grant Johnson (2nd round), Mark Pawelek, Tyler Colvin, Josh Vitters and Andrew Cashner.  Study that list for a moment. 

Only one of them has reached the big leagues with the Cubs (Mark Prior).  I believe Montanez made his debut last season with the Orioles, but he’s not a very good player.  You wouldn’t expect some of them to reach the big leaugues yet but some of them we know for sure never will reach the big leagues with the Cubs.  Christensen is out of baseball, Prior is with the Padres and Brownlie is with the Nationals organization.  Furthermore, Harvey, Johnson and Pawelek have all dropped out of the top 30 prospects and Tyler Colvin has dropped to number 16.  I don’t need to say anything about that for you to see how ridiculously bad that is.  If Vitters follows the same path as the guy drafted in the 1st round before him, he’ll be out of the top 15 next year as well.  I don’t think that’s likely to happen though. 

Brandon Guyer was picked by BA as a breakout candidate:  “The system’s best athlete has the power and speed to move quickly if he can stay healthy.”  The sleeper pick was Dan McDaniel (rhp):  “The 2008 14th-rounder used his plus fastball/curve combo to dominate in his pro debut.”

The Cubs gave out bonuses totaling $5.5 million in the 2008 draft.  The rest of this is from the 2008 Draft Analysis section.

The best pure hitter is SS Ryan Flaherty (1A) or C Matt Cerda (4).  Flaherty hit .297 in the NWL and made the all-star team while Cerda batted .253 in rookie ball, but made the transition from shortstop to catcher while doing that.

The best power hitter is 1B Rebel Ridling (25).  Ridling hit 14 home runs after being drafted and reached Low A ball. 

Tony Campana (13) is the fastest runner and runs the 60-yard dash in 6.3 seconds.  He stole 22 bases in 25 professional games after drafted. 

C Luis Flores (13) is the best defensive player and he threw out 49% of attempted basestealers. 

Andrew Cashner (1) has the best fastball.  He was wild in his debut, but hit 99 mph and was “unhittable” in High A.  His fastball sat between 96 and 98 mph as a reliever at TCU.  Chris Carpenter (3) can hit 97 mph.

Andrew Cashner’s slider is the best secondary pitch of the Cubs draft:  “It has so much break it looks like a curveball at times.”

RHP Jay Jackson (9) had the best pro debut by going 4-2 with a 2.88 ERA and 72 strikeouts to only 13 walks in 50 innings.  He finished the season by winning a game in the postseaoson to help the Daytona Cubs win the championship.  Jackson’s fastball sits in the low 90s, he throws a hard slider and has an average curve and a developing change.

2B Logan Watkins (21) is the best athlete.  He can play 2nd, SS, and CF and he’s definitely got the scrappy/gritty mentality seeing as he was an all-start QB.  We also know Watkins is good people since he’s from Kansas.

Bob Brenly’s son, Michael (36), has the most intriguing background.  Yeah, whatever.  Talk your dad into retiring from the booth and I might care.  RHP Casey Coleman’s (15) dad and grandpa were all-star pitchers

Cashner would be the obvious choice for closest to majors “if the Cubs weren’t going to develop him as a starter.”  RHP David Cales (24) is the next selection.

The guy from Kansas was obviously the best late-round pick.

RHP’s Alex Wilson (10) and Sonny Gray (27) are the ones who got away.  Ryno mentioned Wilson on here the other day after a very good start for him in college and Sonny Gray is a first round talent that had no intention of signing with any team in the 2008 draft as his agent informed all teams he would not sign.  Then again, why not draft him and try to sign him as the Cubs did?  Couldn’t hurt. 

Overall Assessment:  “The Cubs believe Cashner will develop as a starter.  In RHP Aaron Schafer (2) and Carpenter, they added two more arms who projected as first-rounders before having elbow problems.  Flaherty and Cerda have the potential for premium bats at premium positions.”

Cubs Minor League Positional Rankings: SS Edition

1. Sam: Starlin Castro (turns 19 March 24)—

He played in the DSL in 2007 and put up fair numbers (.299/.371/.371 with 10 XBH & 23/24 BB/K in 253 PA, 13/2 SB/CS).  That was a pretty fair start, and he followed that up with .311/.364/.464 with 19XBH & 14/33 BB/K in 215 PA with 6/5 SB/CS with good defense @ SS in 2008 with the AZL Cubs.  His BB/K ratio took quite a hit on his promotion, but he put up better offensive numbers due to maturation physically.  Almost doubling his K rate on his first promotion is worrisome, but it’s still not remarkably high at this point (15.3% in AZL).  His numbers offensively improved and he struck out less as the AZL season went on, posting better OBP and SLG numbers every month in 2008.  He’d hopefully go to a full-season league next year, but some more instructs and a season @ Boise as a 19 y.o. isn’t out of the question either.  I don’t suspect the Cubs will move him too quickly, but as long as he’s given time to adapt to each new level he should be in good shape.  His ceiling is tough to gauge since he’s still young and very raw, and he showed a lot of improvements moving to the AZL, which is a little tougher than the DSL.  My guess: AS SS, .290/.340/.460 with good 2B’s and 3B’s and maybe 10 HR in there too.  I don’t give him much odds to get there, but he’s still 19 and never played in a full season league, so a lot could happen to keep him on or off of an prospect list.  ETA: 2012?

JG: Hak-Ju Lee (18)—

I’m going to reveal my racial prejudice and state up front that Lee is a safe pick in my opinion. I agree with Sam that Castro might be the No. 1 prospect in terms of potential, but I think Lee is more likely to contribute to the Chicago Cubs. The 6’3”, 175 pound lefty hitter has been praised for his speed and glove. No question, this kid will stick at SS. You’ll be beaten to death with people telling you how scouts have said he’s better than Jeter at this age, but that’s not the exact quote. In reality, one scout was quoted as saying Lee has better tools than Jeter at this point of development. Minor detail, but still high praise. At the plate, patience will be key for him. He’s not going to hit for a lot of power, but he should hit well enough to make the 25-man by 2012.

2. Sam: Hak-Ju Lee—When you are compared to a future Hall of Famer you’re making a good start.  The favorable comparision to a young Jeter’s tools could be woefully inadequate or flattering at this point, but we won’t know much more until he gets on the field in the U.S. sometime this year.  He bats left-handed and has 4.10 sec. speed to first, also runs an 11 sec. 100 m dash, so he’s pretty fast.  He’s described as being listed at 6’ but actually taller (Shinsano at East Windup Chronicle said 6’2”) and heavier than the listed 170 lbs.  Lots of false reporting goes on in Korean newspapers, so their descriptions comparing him to Ichiro et al. are likely at least partially if not entirely fabricated.  I don’t know what more to put on a player only a select few in the U.S. have even seen play.  Everyone raves about his tools, so he certainly seems to have a shot at making it.  It’s several years away at least though.  ETA: 2013?

JG: Starlin Castro—We can make fun of Wilken for his drafting with the Cubs, but the guy knows talent when he sees it. He sees it in Starlin Castro (comparing him to Tony Fernandez).

“He’s going to be a special player,” Wilken said. “In his hitting action, he’s got about as good wrists as I’ve seen in quite some time.”

He put up a .311/.364/.464 line in the AZL league at 18 last year, a vast improvement over his time in the league as a 17-year-old. He won’t strike out a lot, but he won’t walk much either. Right now, I’d say his ceiling is an above average glove with a .300/.350/.450 line, which would be great. I’d also say he could surprise a lot of people by adding some power and becoming a top prospect.

3. Darwin Barney (turned 23 Nov. 8)—

First full season after being drafted in 2007 spent @ Daytona (.262/.325/.357 with 29 XBH & 38/58 BB/K in 459 PA, 8/3 SB/CS).  Darwin Barney led Oregon State to back-to-back College World Series titles and will be forever remembered because of that.  He’s also not that great a prospect for being the #3 guy on this list, as he probably won’t consistently hit for average with that K%, doesn’t seem to have great strike zone judgement, doesn’t really hit for much power, and isn’t so flashy with the glove that he can make up for his offensive deficiencies.  All that said, he’s still a pretty decent player with a good shot at sticking on a team as a Utility guy who can play lots of places with average ability.  His bat doesn’t look like it’s ever going to be great (maybe .280/.340/.375 at his peak), but as a 4th/5th IF guy, it will never have to be.  Who knows though, the guy isn’t a bad player, and improving one’s game while moving to AA next season isn’t out of the question.  He’ll probably play next to Tony Thomas again next season in Tennessee.  ETA: in 2010 he’ll probably be ready to contribute as a Utility IF if not later this season.

JG: Junior Lake—

You might remember this name from Sam’s 2B list. I’ll give him a bit more time to see if he can stick at SS, where he’d have the best bat on this list. Line of .286/.335/.417 with the AZL Cubs last year. He’s shown flashes of power with a frame to add weight. Honestly, though, the fact that he’s on this list is depressing because I guarantee that you probably won’t hear his name outside of this list ever again. Darwin Barney is womb vomit.

Sleeper. Sam: Nate Samson (21)—

Turned in a pretty positive season @ Peoria in 2008 (.293/.365/.356 with 22 XBH & 40/49 BB/K in 561 PA, 15/11 SB/CS, 16! HBP) and even got a little time in @ Iowa (2/9 H/AB, 2 K) after struggling some @ Peoria in 2007 (.246/.327/.290 with 7 XBH & 21/25 BB/K in 220 PA).  So he repeated a level and doesn’t appear to be that good at any individual skill other than being a switch hitter (although he seems to be a natural righty trying to pick up SH) with good contact skills and being able to field SS well enough that he should stay there.  He’s still not old for his level and looks to probably spend most of the season @ Daytona next year.  Nothing special here it seems.  So, the reason I’m encouraged about him?  He had a .721 OPS in a .693 OPS league as a 20 y.o. in a league where the average player is 22.  I don’t know how much he can improve on this, but in a system that is nearly devoid of any SS talent in full-season leagues, it’s something to be encouraged by.  I think Ryan Theriot’s 2008 season with a better glove is probably his ceiling, but that’s not such a bad thing, even if it’s not very repeatable.  ETA: Late 2011?

JG: Samson—I’ll agree with Sam on this one basically because he’s the only person not already on the list in the entire organization capable of playing SS at the ML level. Sad.

In Summary: We have two very intriguing SS prospects that are a long way from the majors. That said, we’ll know a lot more about what to expect from them in the next two years. I truly believe Lee will be our SS by the end of 2012, if not sooner.

C Edition
1B Edition
2B Edition

Cubs Minor League Positional Rankings: 2B Edition

Surprisingly we have quite a few 2B prospects, which is disappointing, because most 2B prospects either don’t have the glove for SS or don’t have the bat to stick elsewhere. The not-enough-glove-for-SS is disappointing, but at least the first few guys look like they might have the bat to be something interesting.

1. Ryan Flaherty (turns 23 July 27, 2009):

Sam – He hit .297/.369/.511 in 245 PA with 4/6 SB/SBA and had 16 E in 52 G @ SS for the Boise Hawks last year after a solid career at Vanderbilt.  It’s possible the organization sees him as a SS.  I see him as an at absolute best a slightly below average (Ryan Theriot-esqeu) glove there, meaning he’s likely to end up @ 2B, which is why he’s here and not in a future post.  I see Flaherty’s offense being very similar to Mark DeRosa now, and not Mark DeRosa when he was in the minors posting .274/.340/.374.  At his worst looks like a utility infielder for the big club, which is an impressive compliment for someone who’s had 245 PA of professional experience.  Walking 24 times and hitting 29 XBH in your first taste of professional ball will cause that sort of optimism.  His best is tough to judge, as he has a pretty level swing that generates lots of line drives, and if he were to add some loft he’d probably hit more like 25-30 HR a season instead of the 15-20 it looks like he’ll hit now if he develops.  He’d probably strike out a little more under those circumstances, which may hamper his AVG/OBP.  Either way, that all supposition.  I see him as a .285/.355/.460 bat @ 2B, which is pretty darn good and should keep him slightly above average offensively with an average or slightly better glove.  He’s not been much of a base-stealer through most of his college career, so I wouldn’t expect much there.  Either way, a good bet to move up pretty quickly.  ETA: Mid-season 2010 if there’s need otherwise 2011.

Jame Gumb – I used to feel bad for comparing this kid to Chase Utley, but not anymore. He won’t produce as much offensively and he’s not as good defensively, but that’s who he reminds me of. After forming a formidable left side of the infield with Pedro Alvarez at Vandy, Flaherty played SS for Team USA. His future is likely at 2B, though some scouts seem to think his bat would play at a corner OF spot. He has the typical, sweet lefty swing that gets through the zone quickly. He didn’t display a ton of power for a 22-year-old at Boise (which was the knock on him in the draft), but I think the Cubs think they can fix him. A guy his size (about 6’3”, 190) has the frame to add size and power. I agree with Sam on the BA and OBP projections, but I’m optimistic that he can add a bit more power than that.

Highlight video

2. Sam – Tony Thomas (turns 23 July 10, 2009):

Hit .266/.320/.400 in 493 PA with 22/32 SB/SBA in Daytona in 2008 in his first full season with the organization.  Dispelled a lot of doubts about his ability to stick @ 2B, with a .989 FP and a 5.22 RFg with only 6 errors in 105 G and 554 TC.  Despite the poor offensive season @ Daytona which was still slightly above league average in the pitching dominant FSL, I’ve only become more encouraged by Tony Thomas the player, as he spent lots of time refining his defense and it probably made him to at least an average glove there, which saves him from having to be so stellar on offense to be productive.  His patience at the plate eroded slightly this year, but that could be due to concentrating on other things as well, so I’m willing to give him a pass for this season and say it will show up later.  He struck out quite a bit (~25% of his professional PA), but probably will always have that problem with his very open stance.  For all that he struggled on offense he still hit 41 XBH with 7 HR, so he figures to have average power for his position in the pros.  If his pitch selection reverts to it’s college and 2007 professional levels that would be huge, as he’ll be a .270/.360/.435 player who steals 30+ bases at a pretty reasonable rate and hits 40+ 2B, 5-10 3B and 10-15 HR a season and bats at one of the top two spots in the lineup. ETA: 2010.

Jame Gumb – Marwin Gonzalez (turns 20 on March 14):

Doing these things on position players is beating me down because of the lack of talent. Whatever… Gonzalez broke out as an 18-year-old in Rookie ball with a .288/.391/.492 line. Struggled last year across Boise and Peoria, but has rebounded in the Venezuelan Parallel League with a line of .337/.430/.533. He can play just about any position on the diamond well enough, but projects as a 2B, where his bat should be above average. He has great plate discipline for a kid his age, as evinced by his stellar BB/K ratio, which goes as he goes (i.e. when he’s hitting, he’ll walk about as much as he strikes out). If this kid progresses, he’ll make the active roster sometime in 2012. I bet you can’t wait…

3. Sam – Junior Lake (turns 19 March 27, 2009):

Hit .286/.335/.417 in 185 PA with 12/14 SB/SBA with the AZL Cubs in 2008.  He most likely won’t stick @ SS defensively, and the organization has already had him play @ 3B and 2B in the AZL.  He’s very young, but hits for some power already with 33 XBH and shows some speed with 21/26 SB/SBA as a professional and 8 3B in 434 career PA.  He’s still only 18, so what exactly he can become is still up in the air, but he’s shown just about every tool in his short time as a pro, and has hit for a decent average despite high strikeout totals, which is either luck or indicative of him making lots of good contact when he does hit it.  He’s going to fill out some more as he matures, and should be ready for a full season league next year @ 19.  Prospects like this could go a lot of different directions and there is a lot of bust potential, but the combination of tools to be a very good ball player is there.  ETA: 2012?

Jame Gumb – Nate Spears (turns 24 on May 3)

Let me first say that I would have put Lake at No. 2, but I think he has a good chance to stick at SS.

Anyway, Britney’s younger brother doesn’t have her moves or looks. All he did was put up an OPS of .832 at AA last year. He’s a skinny little bitch, but he’s adequate defensively and is the lefty-hitting, 2B version of Ryan Theriot…though he might be a little more productive. That’s about all there is to it.

Ones to watch include Logan Watkins and no one else.

1B Edition
C Edition

Cubs Minor League Positional Rankings: 1B Edition

Sam and I would first like to remind you that you read every word.

This position is a a tough one. 1B isn’t a position we have a lot of depth at, at the moment. Hoffpaiur might be an average MLB 1B, but he’s 28, so he’s not really deserving of prospect consideration. What’s even more sad is that we really only have one or two bats that could hit well enough for a move to first.

1. Jovan Rosa

Samael —Our last draft and follow player turned 21 on Oct. 26. Between our two non-2008 signee corner-IF prospects (Vitters being the other), I think this one’s the most likely to move to 1B, as he has a .904 FP with 32 Errors in 120 games at 3B. Offense-wise, he’s still developing, he strikes out >25% of the time, but has some doubles power which could very easily become average to slightly above-average homerun power as he develops. Right now, in 673 AB, he’s batting .300/.358/.434 with 65 XBH (54 just in 2008). Upside-wise, I’m thinking a player similar to D-Lee on offense (.280/.350/.480 career with .300/.360/.500 peak), without the gold-gloveliness.

Jame Gumb—As usual, it seems, I’m with Sam on this one. I figured one of Rosa and Vitters would be moved to 1B, and Rosa is definitely the more likely of the two. The depressing thing is that I’m not nearly as high on this kid as everyone else. He could develop the power necessary to anchor first base. He could increase his glove work and compensate for his lack of HR power with defense. He could do a lot of things, but I agree with Sam that his upside is likely that of the Derrek Lee we traded Choi for after the 2003 season…not the 2005 version.

2. Rebel Ridling

Sam—2008 draftee turns 23 on May 22. Batted .321/.382/.622 in Oklahoma State as a Junior, was drafted in the 25th round by the Cubs and hit .250/.304/.492 in 236 AB between Boise and Peoria. He’s going to strike out a lot, and how he adapts as he moves up levels will determine how far he makes it. He didn’t show much patience in college or his first season in the pros, so unless that develops it’s unlikely he’ll be much more than a .255/.300/.480 hitter with lots of K’s and HR’s.

JG—The low-minors version of Adam Dunn without the walks. His power is definitely for real, and he probably has the best raw power in our system. The problem is that he was pretty old for his level and he may not walk or hit enough for that power to matter. It’s not likely that a kid this age changes his approach, but he’ll be a monster if he does. Just so you know, I’ll put more effort into my portion of these blurbs when I give a rat’s ass about the player.

3. Ryan Keedy

Sam—Another 2008 draftee, turned 23 on Aug. 15. Drafted in the 16th Round after batting .423/.519/.675 as a Senior at Alabama-Birmingham, after a .333/.457/.455 junior season. The power is the big question mark with him, he strikes out quite a bit but has a respectable Rich Hill rate to go with it. If he develops that power, a .290/.365/.490 career line with a .300/.380/.500 peak isn’t out of the question. He likely has the highest ceiling of these players, but because he’s only hit with power in one season of college Rich Hill, he’s got to show more before he’s listed higher.  A .125 IsoP isn’t getting a first basemen to the majors. He’s a lefty, which is a big plus in this system, which seems rather sparse on LHB.

JG—Hell, combine Ridling and Keedy and you have a real 1B prospect. Keedy + Ridling’s power would be phenomenal, as Keedy is the hitter, the fielder and the lefty that Ridling isn’t. Again, he’s old for his level, so he’s going to have to develop that power pretty quickly if he’s going to be considered a legitimate prospect, but it’s more likely that Keedy develops power than it is that Ridling develops everything else or Rosa hones his skills. Still, power at 1B is imperative, in my opinion. Until he develops power, he’s No. 3 in our system.

*Sam’s note: I’m not sure which I rate higher between Ridling and Keedy, they’re both just out of college and so far away from the bigs. Ridling has lots of raw power, which to me means he probably has a better chance of getting to the bigs, but if Keedy even gets into the .175-.200 IsoP he’s a better prospect cause he’ll take enough walks for the both of them.

*JG’s note: What a fucking joke. We can’t come up with ONE legitimate first base prospect?! How depressing. What’s worse, is there isn’t more to this list. This is it. I assume we have a few more people who play 1B in our system, but none of them seem like anything more than those old-school punching bags for kids that won’t stay knocked down.

Our No. 4 1B prospect:

Cubs Minor League Positional Rankings: C Edition

Samael and I will be taking a look at the top future chokers in the Cubs organization by position and presenting our findings to you throughout the off-season. The first edition will be Catcher.

No. 1 is obvious: Koyie Hill

Hit a pedestrian .095/.095/.143 for the Cubs this year, but the key was his record in games he played: 4-6. Adjust that record since 4 of his games came at the end of the season (and nobody would win those games), and the Cubs were 4-2 in games he played. Add that to last year, and the Cubs are 122-2 in games Koyie Hill plays. How is that possible? His CERA is -1.98 and his (WP+PB)/G is -0.17.

2. Beef Castle:

  Samael—.285, 25+ 2B, 10 HR (prjected MLB numbers) Castillo is one of the best defensive C’s in the minors, he doesn’t have quite the power or patience that Soto displayed at similar ages while have a similar K rate, striking out ~25% of the time.  He’s hit for a consistently high average, having only batted below .270 in 32 AB’s as a 19 y.o. and had his batting average increase at every level he’s played at.  His ceiling is that of a GG C with an above-average offensive skill set in both power and patience.  He’s probably best utilized in a trade, as Soto has the position locked up for the forseeable future, but could capably step in if the unforseen occured. ETA: 2010.
    Jame Gumb—I’m with Samael on this one. He’s basically Yadier Molina. He’s widely considered to be one of the best defensive catchers in the minor leagues. He put up a line of .298/.362/.414 in AA as a 21-year-old after playing last year in low A ball. While not great, he should be slightly above average with the bat and flat out dominant on defense. I also agree with Sam in that he’s likely one of our best trading chips since we’re pretty set at catcher.

3. Steven Clevenger:

    Sam —.300, .380 OBP, 25 2B Clevenger’s defense will determine if he’s more than a back-up at the big leagues, but being that he’s a left-handed batter with fair speed (12/17 SB/SBA), and good plate discipline (92 BB, 90 K in 953 PA), the mere small amount of power (.092 career IsoP) he posesses will be probably overlooked and he’ll be given plenty of chances to join the greater fraternity of Backuptis Catcherus.  It’s somewhat notable that he’s been passed by Castillo not just on the org. depth chart, but also in the organizational ladder.  He repeated Daytona after having spent half of last season there.  ETA: 2011
    JG—I’m a little more sold on his bat than Sam, as he has a career OPS around .770 and his more than holding his own in the AFL right now, with an OPS over 1. I do agree that defense will be the key for the converted infielder, who threw out 20 of 63 base stealers this year. He looks like a very good backup or platoon option at catcher.

Sleeper:
Sam—Blake Lalli

(.270, 15+ HR) More of a super-utility 25th man as he’s pitched and played some back-up catcher and 1B in his 3 seasons with the org.  His power is real though, as he’s hit 69 XBH in 742 AB, and just moved up 3 levels this season, with 399 AB and 49 XBH.  As a back-up C that power has some value, the question is if his defense allows him to play there more permanently or he just roves around the field as a PH/1B/C.  If it does, he has a future.  He’s already going to be 26 in May though, so it’s not a big window.  ETA: by 2011 or not at all.
   
JG —Matt Cerda

Famous for the article about him making the last out in the Little League World Series, might be famous for his play soon. Wilken loves the kid they selected in the fourth round of the 2008 Amateur Draft (and would have picked in the third round had Chris Carpenter not fallen to them). Put up a .253/.341/.338 with 25 Ks against 21 BBs in 154 ABs in AZ this year. Great eye at the plate and could add power as he grows. Coaches will love this kid, who is being tried at catcher for now. I resisted the urge to make Mark Reed my sleeper, as I’ve been waiting for him to break out for years.